- Pick a game.
- Set the number of simulations.
- Customize game settings (optional).
- Hit Run Simulation.
Tabs switch between full game, halves, and quarters.
Output
- Win percentage — how often each team won.
- Margin — how often the game ended in each range.
- Total points — how often the combined score landed in each range.
- Defensive and special teams touchdown — how often a team scored without its offense.
- Projections — each player's expected line and touchdown chance.
Sliders
All start at zero. At zero, the model uses each team's last eight games.
- Style — prevent to aggressive. At plus twenty-five, an offense passes twenty-five percent more often, throws twenty-five percent deeper, and plays twenty-five percent faster. Worth about six points, plus three or four for the opponent from the faster pace.
- Performance — underperform to overperform. At plus twenty-five, a team gains twenty-five percent more on runs and after the catch, with twenty-five percent fewer incompletions and sacks. Worth about eleven points in pro football, fourteen in college. On defense, takes about ten points off the opponent.
- Turnovers — whole turnovers. Plus one on a team averaging two makes it three. Costs that team about two points, gives the opponent about two and a half.
- Penalties — whole flags. Plus three costs about two points.
Style and performance set per quarter; overtime uses fourth quarter. Turnovers and penalties apply to the whole game.
What is EPA?
Expected Points Added grades a play by how much it changed the team's scoring chances rather than by yards gained.
Every situation has a value based on what really happened from that spot across thousands of drives. First-and-10 at your own 20 is worth about 0.5 points; first-and-goal at the 3 is worth about 5. A play's EPA is the value after minus the value before.
- A 4-yard gain on 3rd-and-8 loses the drive: positive yards, negative EPA.
- A 3-yard gain on 3rd-and-2 keeps it alive: fewer yards, strongly positive EPA.
- A sack on first down costs more than the yards lost, because it damages the next two plays.
EPA per play shows who controlled the game more reliably than total yards.
- Pick a game.
- Set the number of simulations.
- Customize game settings and players (optional).
- Hit Run Simulation.
Every game is simulated one possession at a time. Tabs switch between full game, halves, and quarters. The second half includes overtime; the fourth quarter does not.
Output
- Win percentage — how often each team won. Overtime is played until somebody wins, so a full game never ends tied; a half or quarter can.
- Margin — how often each team won by each range.
- Total points — how often the combined score landed in each range. Only ranges that happened are shown.
- Game info — home court, rest, pace, possessions, overtime, turnovers and fouls. Home court and rest are measured from the data, not set by hand.
- Projections — each player's average line. The full game adds steals, blocks, turnovers, fouls, shooting, points plus rebounds plus assists and the three pairs, and double-double and triple-double chances. Halves and quarters show minutes, points, rebounds, assists, threes and free throws only.
Sliders
All start at zero. At zero, the model uses each team's last eight games, or every game this season once a team has played eight.
- Style — slow down to push the pace, minus twenty-five to plus twenty-five percent. On offense, it moves possessions per game and the share of shots taken from three. On defense, it moves opponent possessions and opponent threes; above zero the defense gambles, so opponent turnovers rise and opponent shooting gets slightly easier.
- Performance — underperform to overperform, minus twenty-five to plus twenty-five percent. On offense, two-point, three-point and free-throw percentage go up and turnovers go down. On defense, opponent percentages go down and opponent turnovers go up.
- Turnovers — whole turnovers, not a percent, minus five to plus five. A team averaging 14.0 set to plus two averages 16.0.
- Fouls — whole fouls, minus five to plus five, the same idea. Fouls drive the opponent's free throws.
Style and performance set per quarter; overtime uses fourth quarter. Turnovers and fouls apply to the whole game.
Players
- Out — sits a player for the run. His minutes go to his own position group (guard, wing or big), not to the whole roster.
- Player slider — for someone hurt but playing, minus twenty-five to plus twenty-five percent. It moves his minutes and his shooting together.
- Not in last 2 games — he has not appeared in his team's last two games. That is a hint he may be out, not a fact: there is no reliable injury feed, so who sits is yours to set.
Players are listed by minutes per game over their last eight games, most first.